PhD Proposal: Accounting for Differences in Outcome of the Arab Spring


 

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Research Questions, Hypotheses & Variables:

Why did the Arab Spring affect states differently? What accounts for these differences in outcome? This article seeks to address that very question.

In this research, I extend “Wimmer et al’s” model of ethnic conflict & exclusion to include ethno-religious groups in the Middle East. Ample literature has been written on the consequences of minority rule, especially in the Middle East, but there is little research on ethno-religious exclusion as the source of national instability. The typical variables considered are foreign intervention, religiosity or authoritarianism. My argument is that some states are more or less politically developed than others, and as such, exhibit a more sophisticated system that at the very least represents the majority ethnic fabric of the nation-state. Exclusive states tend to be less developed politically, and as such disenfranchise ethnic majorities leading to more instability.

Continue reading “PhD Proposal: Accounting for Differences in Outcome of the Arab Spring”

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Flirting with Fascism


It shouldn’t come as a surprise that white nationalism has triumphed in America.

Brexit, the decision for England to leave the UK, laid the trajectory of the Western world earlier this year.

The world is undergoing vast changes in response to economic decline and a rise in global terrorism, particularly from the Middle East.

It has been 15 years since 9-11.

The world is still in the post-911 era, in which economic insecurity and nationalism are rising together.

Nationalism is filling the void of capitalism’s recent setbacks. There was not a single democratic-liberal candidate on stage. Clinton is essentially center-right. The irony is that

The West, a fancy term which basically means Europe and America, is rejecting globalization and internationalism in favor of war-politics.

Instead of allowing trade and diplomacy to bring nations together as the Obama Administration has been at least attempting to do and successfully in some cases – the US appears to have chosen the trajectory of its mother country, England – right-wing nationalism.

The engine of the type of prosperity Americans yearn for is not one that can be offered by government.

Ironically the right which is typically skeptical of big government has awarded itself the biggest government it could imagine – only one that benefits proponents of war.

The left is painted as some conspiratorial elite meanwhile the right operates exactly as one.

Many in the world are convinced that a Trump presidency is somehow going to be pacifist but they’ve forgotten – they’ve forgotten that if it weren’t for the GOP – Trump’s party – the world would be a much different place today.

We might have never gone to war in the Middle East, spring-boarding the rise of ISIS and unprecedented waves in international terror.

I do believe that the illusion which has been sold to the American people will be exposed.

This is one giant lesson for humanity – that selective justice and moral relativism are dangerous devices to flirt with. Perhaps the West’s neglect for humanitarianism in the East has backfired.

Hopes for living out the democratic dream in the underdeveloped world were hijacked and undermined. The hint of liberalism which crept in through the Arab Spring was eclipsed by a cold, harsh Arab Winter.

In these next four years, the US is likely to engage in direct military confrontations – contrary to what Trump’s electorate believes they voted for. This is the basis of the GOP’s ideology. It is the engine of Anglo-Supremacy.

Remember – Trump has no ideology. He just a hateful politician who exploits convenience. If the social scapegoat happened to be Japanese – he’d go after them too – and devise some sick conspiratorial ideology to advance it. In fact, Trump is not as detached from his party as it seems. There is a reason why he chose the Republican and not the Democratic ticket to run on this election, given he was formerly a member of the latter as is now widely known.

The ideological battle in the GOP between nationalists and capitalists has given way to the former in the presidency.

Rubio vs. Trump embody this difference. Trump is a sympathetic to dictators. Rubio is antithetical to them – partly because he is of Cuban ancestry, haunted by Castro’s legacy at home. The Cuban Lobby is one of the most powerful in America, and Cubans of the Latin-American community tend to be in the right side of the political spectrum, unlike most other Latin-Americans, such as Puerto Ricans, Colombians and so forth.

The world is reeling from the election results and everyone is venting their frustrations and angers but nobody has really offered an accurate portrayal of what to expect.

Ultimately, the party that brought Trump to power is the Republican base. These guys are conservative, and no matter what Trump’s rhetoric might have suggested, or what his own followers might want, the establishment of the conservative base which brought him to power is the one that dictates the future, similar to one the Democratic establishment which lays the agenda for their candidate. Donald Trump was portrayed as somebody who is maniacal, crazy, and a “masterful” politician. In reality, he was exploiting his privilege, inheritances, and political affiliations. The GOP knew that a Hillary-led America was their demise. What people do not seem to realize is the following – the specter of racism which is deeply embedded in American culture afflicts the world at large, and this can be true of nearly every political phenomenon which affects Americans. The US and the international arena are inextricably linked.

The Russians played a part but the real reason for Trump’s win was the fascist racist subculture which largely dictates US policy in domestic and foreign spheres.

The Russians have taken for granted Obama’s flexibility and compromise. Like the Americans, they feel they’ve encouraged the rise of a greater asset for stability – but what they underestimate, as they have their foes in their recent past, is Trump’s loyalty to his own party platform, whom without, he wouldn’t know what to do. This guy is a figurehead – not a policymaker.

I predict Trump will be a disaster for both his nation, his allies and his foes – because he will act on the ideological positions of his party which will run counter to the reconciliatory efforts of Obama which eased global tensions, such as with Iran. He’s completely reduced US presence in Iraq. The exception was Libya. The Syrian Crisis can be blamed mainly on Gulf & Turkey.

Trump will attempt to sabotage the Iran Nuclear Deal, inflame radicalism and terror & damage the global economy. His noninterventionism will prove to be a lie as the GOP convinces him to militarily confront Islamists more directly. He will embolden his Gulf allies, while supporting dictators like Assad, thereby creating a more dire situation of instability and violence – contrary to his empty promises of unconventional approaches to foreign policy. He will stand more strongly with Israel, and undermine Palestinian human rights therein – contrary to expectations that his competitor, Clinton would do worse. This doesn’t mention the domestic ills he will cause – and the backlash that will come with it. His empty promises will have proved to hijack the insecurities of Americans. They’ve created a new messiah for themselves. And almost every single accusation of deviousness levied by them, is in fact practiced by them in the fullest. The lazy, unambitious, privileged, complacent, unskilled, bitter, overweight, gluttonous, self-loathing, racist, dependent, nepotistic and unmerited class of Americans have shown their hypocrisy. They’ve shown that deep down they hate America; and wish to see it suffer as they do for their lack of conscience and humility. They echo radicals in their hatred of liberal freedoms which they are ungrateful for.

Let us hope we can overcome. Whether that means enduring, impeaching, organizing or mobilizing.

Trump will make a mockery of the Russians for believing he was better for them than Clinton. The GOP cannot decide between nationalism and capitalism – and the Middle East is a dire example of that where the US is caught between helping their Gulf allies fund ISIS & al Qaeda against Assad while simultaneously protecting Assad against ISIS. This double-dealing is symbolic of a long-lasting tradition called the Great Game, originally waged between England and Russia. Now the New Great Game is fought between USA & Russia, over regions like Middle East and Central Asia.

Americans have amnesia. They’ve forgotten that the GOP is responsible for bringing us to the point we are at in our history. They’ve forgotten the Bush years. The WMD lies. The millions of dead Iraqis. They’ve forgotten the War on Terror. They’ve forgotten Obama’s inheritances. The media emblazoned Trump’s message everywhere and Americans naturally ate it up.

Americans caved in. They could not contain their miseries. Meanwhile, the rest of the world has been reeling from American onslaught for decades.

The point of this article is to demonstrate how the Republican Party has – once again – fooled Americans. You’ve all been duped into a new promise, instead of treading along the trajectory of realism and reconciliation as we were with Obama. All your conspiratorial messianic megalomaniacal invocations against Obama were actually embodied by your new GOP leader – Donald J. Hitler. If Clinton was a hawk – Trump will prove to be a bald eagle clutching a fasces.

These next 4 to 8 years will be tough – but they will NOT be what people expect.

I can assure you that by 2020, the world will be a much different place, and America will finally realize that, as leader of the world, still, one cannot practice democracy while expecting other nations to devolve into utter chaos, conflict and injustice. America cannot begin to be selective about justice at home or abroad. Only then can fascism be put to rest wholly.

Trump’s election is a disgrace to America. It is a disgrace to the world and should be protested in every form. Whether we succeed or not in indicting him for ANYTHING he does we make it clear that this man is not liked, not representative, nor reflective of America as a whole.

Trump endangers minorities, African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, immigrants, Muslims, women & LGBT.

Trump’s positions will reflect his own selfishness and that of those around him. He will even sidestep his own so-called beliefs and compromise them as long as it benefits the GOP’s vision of a racist and imperial America.

All those who sympathize with him, particularly those from Arab or Armenian communities which I come from, will be made a mockery of when he displays exactly how he is going to undermine your community entirely.

America will have elected a false messiah; and earned a devil instead.

My worry is our ambivalence towards Clinton has put a much worse fascist in office.

Trump is motivated by a complete lack of moral restraint. That is why I am puzzled by those who chose not to stand with Clinton, or who chose to devote their cause to a third party candidate, because of the clear racism and fascism harbored by Trump and his followers. But this is a part of the GOP fabric. The irony is that the GOP is both incompetent and bitter that even their own selfishness is without any achievement. How pathetic.

From an Armenian perspective it does not make sense to stand with Trump or the GOP for two reasons:

Trump will side with Turkish fascism, racism (anti-Armenian, Kurd sentiment) & imperialism (involvement in Iraq & Syria). Somehow this will be reconciled with Trump’s promise to contain ISIS and ‘radical Islam’. They’ve pinned Hillary as a corroborator because of her “apparent shortcomings” but Trump’s double-dealings will prove to be actually devilish – beyond illusory YOUTUBE conspiracy theories.

His team has already expressed an urgent need for closer ties with Turkey – despite democratic shortcomings and rampant ethnocentrism.

He will side with Azerbaijani-occupation.

He has already stood with Israeli-apartheid & occupation.

As an Arab, there is no reasoning in siding with Trump either; or enabling him indirectly even. He hates Arabs; and Muslims. Trump will worsen the security conditions in the ME which will run counter to what ME governments think will b better US FP. He has already opened wounds by what he represents – the darkest shade of the American nationalist fabric.

He will follow no consistent course of moralism – but rather a path of ambiguous yet vigorous authoritarianism. And he will violate every promise made of being noninterventionist justified as security initiatives as usual.

Trump will renege every promise he’s made of being anti-establishment, non-interventionism and radical change. Instead he will drift the US along the course it was on before Obama – the one of Bush jr. You think otherwise because he’s claimed to be against this or that? Have you paid attention to his flip-flopping?

Just remember – what the Russians expected out of their deal with Hitler was eventually overturned and they were backstabbed. It was convenient for the Germans at the time to lure Russia; just as Trump might have duped them into thinking he’s playing their game.

Pay closer attention.

The Democrats don’t need some cosmic change. We do want more minority representation but what defeated the left is fear. Just as fear defeated common sense when Bush beat Gore – who like Clinton won the popular vote.

So much for being anti-establishment.

We might have a chance to impeach Trump (for future or past unknown offenses; Treason w/ the Russians?) or force him to resign – if we have the willpower and legal capacity. Or we might have to endure and defeat him in the coming elections. It all depends on how things unfold and how far he goes along the spectrum of his maniacal, politically inexperienced imagination. If Trump deports people by the masses; passes laws that destroy the US economy; incites greater terrorism; expresses more authoritarianism; challenges US civil liberties; insults minorities  – I foresee mass protests and unrest. Till then, we endure.

A message to the younger generation is to remain more vigorous, organized and effective – and be universally cognizant of moral injustices around the world. This will empower us on the domestic and international level. Most importantly however it is time to exhibit some more confidence, similar to that of the FDRs, JFKs and even Obama. Let us harbor our humility and modesty; while exploiting our cunning. This is politics – not philosophy class – after all. Harden your skin, folks!

Nazism, anti-semitism, racism & all forms of conspiratorial genocide denial are ILLEGAL in Germany and many parts of Europe. America hasn’t caught on because it benefits from the Anglo-American, White Supremacist Authoritarian Insecurity Complex. As Edward Said might call it, Orientalism or post-Colonialism. The violation of the Hatch Act by James Comey should have disqualified Trump – and his close ties with Comey and his associates, as well as those with Russia, should be grounds for disqualification. This isn’t necessarily to prevent a Republican victory, but rather, a Donald Trump victory. A Marco Rubio presidency, though controversial, would not elicit backlash because Rubio has never expressed Nazi ideals. Watch as Trump backtracks completely on all his anti-establishment policies and watch as he solidifies the American corporate grip on politics. Finally, you’ll see an unprecedented escalation is US militarism. All contrary to his empty promises, but consistent with his, and his party’s own neofascist foundation.

The problem good people have is they misunderstand both politics and spirituality. They’ve got this extreme inclination, one that is imbalanced. The ordinary American seems caught between his materialistic desires and philosophical pretentiousness, without any middle ground. Politics is approached as some revenge game, not with any sense of practicality and moral imperative – the two contradictory ideological foundations of American politics. President Obama, Reagan, Bush Sr., Carter, JFK, FDR, Teddy, were among these types.

But really guys? Enough with the privileged talk about third party candidates. Suspend your egos for just one moment. You guys fear some conspiratorial presidency under Clinton only to usher in an actually conspiratorial presidency under Trump as a solution or an alternative? What hypocrisy! And all this post-election banter about “listening to rural white America”. The same guys who have been telling us for years not to look at government as our savior have now idolized worshipped and ushered in their fascist messiah. Most of these guys are envious, unemployed, insecure, lazy, racist, sexist, selfish citizens who do not contribute to society economically or socially or politically yet blame immigrants for their own miseries, as opposed to their own egos and incompetencies. The irony – the privileged complaining about oppression. The fascists demanding government interference. The irony. The libertarians and the anarchists all who rallied behind a neoconservative symbol of tyranny. The Arab-Americans who sympathized with Trump – I hope Trump moves the embassy to Jerusalem in Israel so that you may be shamed for your support for him. The Armenians who doubted Hillary – you will feel shame for not recognizing your own selfishness in the face of a blatant racist.

America will regret this decision. I find solace in the fact that Clinton won the popular vote. It furthermore underscores the establishment’s endorsement and enabling of Trump – from corporations, to hedge-funds, to mass-media – this is Trump’s syndicate which propelled him to the presidency.

Trump has exploited controversy capitalism. What this means is he uses his position to get more attention through controversy instead of through genuine accord. Unlike previous presidents – especially those on the left – he lacks the educational, moral and character capacity and knowledge about policy to draw genuine support so he depends on appeals to the lower bases of human nature – such as attachment, idolatry & scapegoating.

The mob rule mentality and controversy capitalism have overtaken America.

A history of property laws based on preventing non-white ethnic groups from equal opportunity in the political and economic spheres thereby rendering them weak in representative power. Even Armenians were not allowed Racism has taken a new form in modern America.

Now that Trump has announced his cabinet choices –

How can America not see this is blatant racism? In Europe – Germany for example – Nazism is literally illegal. Do we have to wait till gas chambers until we realize we’re “headed in the wrong direction?”

I am an Armenian. I know this all too well. I have etched images and movies in my mind – like figments of my imagination running through my blood and my genes – perhaps self-constructed – but nnetheless vivid and real – that recall of the horror and tragedy of the Armenian Genocide – I hear women’s and children’s screams.

And Putin’s Russian has already expressed doubts about what Trump is promising he will do as a means of cooperating in Syria with the Russian army.

Remember – at first before WWII both the Russians (then the USSR) and the British appeased Hitler – partly out of skepticism, but also because they kind of identified with him. They could “use” him. Of course it got out of hand, as most might predict, and led to one of the worst tragedies in human history.

Hitler backstabbed the Russians – invaded them. Then he made the British regretful of their appeasement – by almost sacking London.

What is repulsive is that what Trump is doing is not illegal. The right has nothing left to offer which is coherent to the American people and in fact the right is responsible for our economic turmoil as well as our militaristic endeavors. Without the right, there would be no Middle Eastern debacle – at least to the intensity it has reached.

Trump has exploited miserable white men in need of a political messiah.

What happened to self-dependence and working hard – values the right championed? Perhaps they weren’t able to achieve these themselves. And yet, they wish to disenfranchise minorities from the opportunity to compete – what insecurity!

And so I guess we are flirting with fascism after all.

Time will tell, but pay close attention. Trump will falter.

P.L.O. Style – [Political Undertones in Pop-Culture continued…]


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Hip-Hop is always vilified. Guns, crime, jewelry, flamboyance, extreme rhetoric, vulgarity.

Malcolm X once said that governments often oppress people and then chastise them when they express their discontent or attempt a revolution.

It is always easy to rationalize hate of the oppressed, especially for the privileged classes who don’t understand what it means to have nothing, to be hated, and to have their voice suppressed.

The culture of the caucasian community likes to apply harsh & strict values on society, meanwhile, their societal representatives are often caught in scandals in which they are indulging in hypocritical activities.

These ‘strict values’ emanate from a sort of, Disney-esque fairy tale conceptualization of reality, in which man is an innocent child being ‘corrupted’ by cultures like hip-hop. Now don’t get me wrong, I love the Lion King. My point is not to criticize Disney, but on the contrary, the misconstruing of such fairy-tale enterprises which often establish, engrain & enforce social constructs.

The irony is that the reality is quite the opposite.

Hip-Hop was born out of the corruption of social representatives, from politics to big business. Drawing influence from the ideologies of fanaticism, white supremacy & the Jim Crow culture became a form of institutionalized disenfranchisement which perpetuates almost permanently a state of destitute poverty.

Meanwhile the “white man”, the “Donald Sterlings” of America do whatever it takes behind closed doors to secure their fortunes, which are ironically usually made off the backs of non-whites.

The system of disenfranchisement and racism in America is closely linked to its view of the rest of the world. The late Edward Said, a prominent Palestinian intellectual, labeled this self-righteous dogma of the ‘white man’ as Orientalism, which he argued, revealed a long-standing tradition of Western Civilization’s oversimplification of Eastern (or non-Western) culture.  its tools of invasion and oppression abroad, from the Middle East, to Africa, to South America, to the Far East. This ideological bigotry formed much of the cultural foundations of the Occident, or the West, which was essentially used as a justification of the enslavement and exploitation of the Orient. It was responsible for the trans-atlantic slave trade, and the modern system of disenfranchisement of African-Americans in the US.

That is why perhaps the majority of the anti-supremacist collective uprisings which arose in the 19th and 20th centuries occurred in South America, Asia, the Middle East & Africa. And all the while the propaganda and military systems have been at work in the West. Fox News is our Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi’s propaganda artist.

In their collaborative album, Distant Relatives, legendary MC Nas & Reggae godson Damien Marley express these grievances thoroughly. The following is one of the tracks off the album, “Road to Zion”, with undertones that capture the the trials of modern man, the modern Black man, in a turbulent world.

Let it also be known that just like any genre of music or medium of art can be exploited for the sake of political interests, so too can hip-hop. Since the deaths of giants B.I.G. & Pac, hip-hop’s mainstream has been left largely devoid of even the most remote references to oppression & black consciousness. Among the leaders of movement in today’s America are Kanye West & Jay-Z, whose albums never fall short of addressing personal & social grievances.

As an Arab-American, I would like to express that the modern struggle for freedom is shared by most minorities. I once heard a prominent figure within the African-American community suggest, “the Muslim is the new (black man)”. With Islamophobia and anti-Arab sentiment at its peak, not to mention the deprivation of the Palestinians at its worst condition, it is more than necessary for me to underline the importance of the role played by the cultures of the Middle East in contributing to hip-hop & the initiative for genuine art & freedom. Thanks to OkayPlayer, I came across Here is a track by another legendary MC, none other than Method Man of the Wu, titled P.L.O. Style, which surfaced at a time when the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict reached heights of unprecedented contention.